Connecticut Sun and Toronto Tempo meet on September 24, 2026 at 20:00 BRT, 7:00 PM ET, at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville in the WNBA. The game closes Toronto's inaugural season and also the Sun's Connecticut era before the franchise moves to Houston. NBA TV will broadcast the game, and the Sun scheduled it as Fan Appreciation Night.
The competitive context requires caution. Both teams are out of the playoffs and reach the end of the schedule with rotation uncertainty, especially Toronto. For that reason, the model avoids the spread and player props and focuses on the game total.
Prediction and best pick
| Main pick | Over 159.5 points |
| Market | Game total |
| Confidence | 65% |
| Conservative probability | 65% |
No market price was used to calculate edge or EV. The 159.5 line is a model reference line defined before ranking the candidates and is used to express the projection without inventing a market price.
Why this is the best pick
- Enough pace to support scoring volume: in the 40-game sample available at Basketball Reference, Toronto had a 79.4 pace and Connecticut 79.2 possessions per 40 minutes.
- Toronto's defense is the main driver of the over: in the same sample, the Tempo had a 117.7 Defensive Rating and allowed 93.8 points per game. Even with a depleted offense, that profile gives Connecticut room to score above its own offensive average.
- Connecticut also allows efficiency: the Sun had a 110.4 Defensive Rating. On September 20, they lost 101-89 to Minnesota and allowed 101 points after giving up 103 to Atlanta on September 17.
- The head-to-head games were open: Toronto won 106-102 in overtime on June 10 and 101-97 on June 19. Those games get reduced weight because Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey had major offensive performances and the current roster situation is different.
- The 159.5 line leaves room for Toronto's offensive decline: the model already applies a meaningful downward adjustment because of absences and the Tempo's recent scoring drop.
Match context
The Sun enter their final game in Connecticut. The club's official schedule confirms a 7:00 PM ET start, 20:00 BRT, with NBA TV and NBC Sports Boston coverage, plus Fan Appreciation Night activities. Toronto ends its first WNBA season in the same game.
Both teams also play on September 22 before this matchup: Connecticut visits Washington and Toronto visits Chicago. That creates rotation, rest and availability risk less than 48 hours before tipoff. Final roster status should be checked again on game day.
Toronto has been hit by major late-season injuries. The official WNBA Power Rankings listed Brittney Sykes, foot, and Aneesah Morrow, knee, as out for the rest of the season, while Marina Mabrey had uncertainty related to an adductor issue. The club also made September roster moves, including developmental contracts, another sign of unstable rotation.
Form and relevant data
In the 40-game sample available on the season pages used here, Toronto averaged 86.2 points scored and 93.8 allowed, with a 108.2 Offensive Rating and 117.7 Defensive Rating. Connecticut averaged 79.0 points scored and 87.8 allowed, with a 99.4 Offensive Rating and 110.4 Defensive Rating. These figures are used as a baseline, not as an exact picture of the current rotation.
Toronto's latest officially consolidated result used in the calculation was a 103-85 loss to Indiana on September 18, leaving the Tempo at 11-30 at that moment. Connecticut was updated through September 20: a 101-89 loss to Minnesota, with the Sun at 10-32. In that game, Connecticut made 15 of 28 threes, recorded 22 assists and committed 20 turnovers.
The recent stretch creates two opposing signals. Toronto has lost offensive production because of absences, but still allows high opponent scores. Connecticut has been weak offensively over the full season, yet its defense has also conceded large totals and the final home game may increase young-player minutes and pace variance.
Pace, efficiency and matchups
The possession projection starts around 79 per team, consistent with both teams' season pace. The best over matchup is Connecticut's offense against Toronto's defense. The Sun do not need elite efficiency for the game to clear 159.5 if the Tempo can finish in roughly the 78 to 84 point range.
On the other side, Toronto's loss of shot creation lowers the ceiling. That is why the model does not use a high line near the June head-to-head totals. The reference total was set at 159.5, below the central projection but still high enough to avoid an artificial or trivial condition.
How the prediction was calculated
The baseline combines points per game, pace and possession-based efficiency from the season sample. A simple blend of offensive output and opponent points allowed would produce a raw total above 170 points. That figure was reduced to a central projection of about 167 after adjustments for Toronto's injuries, recent offensive decline, rotation uncertainty and lower weight on the June head-to-head games.
Using a game-total distribution around that mean with a standard deviation consistent with WNBA variance, the raw probability for over 159.5 points was about 70%. Evidence quality was assessed at Q = 0.73, with the main deductions coming from roster uncertainty and the September 22 games still pending. After conservative shrinkage toward 50%, the final probability is about 65%. The published confidence is this rounded conservative probability.
No verifiable market quote for this game was used in this run. Therefore, the article does not claim edge, EV or betting value.
What can break the pick
- Toronto may arrive with an even shorter rotation and an offense unable to keep the required scoring pace.
- Connecticut may return to the low-efficiency offensive profile seen for much of the season.
- Both teams may slow the game because of the September 22 schedule and end-of-season context.
- An unexpected change in Marina Mabrey's status or another relevant player can materially alter efficiency and minutes.
- Turnovers, three-point shooting and developmental-player minutes add variance.
Conclusion
Best pick: over 159.5 points at 65% confidence. Near-average pace, Toronto's vulnerable defense and Connecticut's recent defensive instability support the over, while injuries and rotation uncertainty prevent a higher confidence level. The spread should be avoided until rotations are confirmed.
Sources consulted
- WNBA Power Rankings Week 14: https://www.wnba.com/news/2026-power-rankings-week-14
- WNBA, Indiana 103 vs Toronto 85 on September 18, 2026: https://www.wnba.com/watch/video/game-recap-indiana-fever-103-toronto-tempo-85-09-18-2026
- Connecticut Sun, 101-89 loss to Minnesota on September 20, 2026: https://sun.wnba.com/news/sun-battle-back-against-lynx-unable-to-pull-off-rally-101-89
- Connecticut Sun, where to watch and start time: https://sun.wnba.com/where-to-watch
- Connecticut Sun, Fan Appreciation Night: https://sun.wnba.com/theme-nights-and-promos
- WNBA, Connecticut 102 vs Toronto 106 on June 10, 2026: https://www.wnba.com/game/con-vs-tor-1022600089
- WNBA, Toronto 101 vs Connecticut 97 on June 19, 2026: https://www.wnba.com/game/1022600114/TOR-vs-CON
- Basketball Reference, Toronto 2026 season: https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/teams/TOR/2026.html
- Basketball Reference, Connecticut 2026 season: https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/teams/CON/2026.html
- Toronto Tempo, current roster: https://tempo.wnba.com/roster
Predictions are probabilistic and do not guarantee an outcome. Lineups and player availability should be checked again before tipoff.
