100 Thieves and EAC meet on September 23, 2026, at 07:00 BRT in the opening match of Group C at Stake Pulse Beat II. The match is listed as a best of three on LAN. The event takes place in Stockholm, Sweden, from September 21 to 26.
The analysis gives 100 Thieves the edge in the series winner market, but it does not treat the matchup as one-sided. The main informational brakes are the TBA veto and a source discrepancy regarding one EAC lineup slot.
Prediction and best pick
- Main pick: 100 Thieves to win the series
- Market: Series winner
- Confidence: 64%
- Conservative probability: 64%
- Model fair odds: 1.56, with no value comparison because no verified market price was used
Why this is the best pick
100 Thieves hold the better current HLTV position, ranked number 35 against EAC at number 66 on the match page. They also recorded recent 2-0 wins over 3DMAX and Acend, while EAC mixed wins with series losses to ex-Zero Tenacity, Just Players and PCIFIC.
The map picture does not give 100 Thieves a clean edge everywhere. The match page shows EAC competitive on maps such as Cache and Inferno, while 100 Thieves have deeper samples on Mirage, Nuke, Ancient and Anubis. That makes the series winner a more defensible choice than an aggressive map handicap.
Among the valid markets studied, series winner retained the highest conservative probability after uncertainty adjustments.
Match context
Stake Pulse Beat II features 16 teams split into four GSL groups, with BO3 group matches and single-elimination playoffs. The event organizer lists a total prize pool of US$60,000. EAC qualified through the open qualifier, while 100 Thieves entered through the direct registration route.
This is the Group C opener. The LAN setting matters because it removes part of the online-match noise, while making adaptation to the venue and experience in live series more relevant.
Form and data that matter
HLTV lists a 52.6% win rate for 100 Thieves over the last three months and 52.8% for EAC in the same type of window. Those raw rates are almost identical, so the model does not use them in isolation.
The separation comes from opponent quality and recent outcomes. 100 Thieves beat 3DMAX and Acend 2-0 in the Thunderpick World Championship closed qualifier and have recently played stronger opposition. EAC beat UNiTY 2-0 and Bushido Wildcats 2-1, but also lost series to ex-Zero Tenacity, Just Players and PCIFIC.
Maps, veto, meta and series format
The event map pool is Cache, Dust2, Mirage, Inferno, Nuke, Ancient and Anubis. The veto was still TBA at the time of research. HLTV's recent map data show EAC can be competitive across parts of the pool, reducing the appeal of a 2-0 prediction as the main pick.
There is also a roster discrepancy. HLTV lists Fessor, n1Xen, anber, sSen and bekker for EAC, while Dust2 Brasil shows Viggo in the fifth slot. Because roster is a critical CS2 variable, the model does not assume either version is definitively correct before final confirmation.
How the prediction was calculated
The model starts from map-level probabilities and aggregates them into a BO3 series, combining relative strength, recent results, map pool, opponent quality and roster stability. The raw estimate for a 100 Thieves series win was 70%.
Evidence quality was set at Q = 0.72. The score was reduced for the EAC fifth-player discrepancy, the TBA veto and the lack of confirmed market lines. After conservative shrinkage toward 50%, the adjusted probability was 64.4%, rounded to 64% as the published confidence.
No edge or EV was calculated because no market price was verified and recorded at the time of analysis.
What can break the pick
- Confirmation of an EAC roster that differs from the statistical sample used.
- A veto that concentrates the series on EAC's strongest recent maps.
- 100 Thieves volatility, including recent series losses to HOTU and BBL.
- Normal BO3 variance, especially in close maps and high-impact pistol rounds.
Conclusion
The main pick is 100 Thieves to win the series at 64% confidence. The team has the more consistent overall edge in the available evidence, but the forecast remains moderate because of the EAC roster discrepancy and the unknown veto.
Sources consulted
- HLTV: 100 Thieves vs EAC, accessed September 20, 2026
- HLTV: Stake Pulse Beat II, accessed September 20, 2026
- Stake Pulse: official event page, accessed September 20, 2026
- Dust2 Brasil: 100 Thieves vs EAC, accessed September 20, 2026
- HLTV: 100 Thieves team page, accessed September 20, 2026
- HLTV: EAC team page, accessed September 20, 2026
Predictions are probabilistic and do not guarantee an outcome.
